Historically, job loss/ high unemployment usually hits and hits hard with an immediate effect. The recovery however, moves at a snail’s pace. Per the diagram below, unemployment was at 10.8% in November of 1982 and did not hit the safe zone of 5% until February of 1989. In the early '90s, unemployment hit 8% and did not reach the safe zone until five years later. In the earlier part of the millennium, it took a little over two years to recover from an unemployment rate of a little over 6%. In March of 2010, the unemployment rate hit 9.7%; now by my calculations based on history, we will hit the safe zone in January of 2016.
Not what you were expecting to hear, huh? Yeah, me either...not sure if the unemployment benefits will continue to be extended indefinitely. In the meantime, we will have three one-term presidents switching control from Democrat to Republican/Tea Party back to Democratic with the 2016 election. While we attempt to stave off a depression, politicians will have us believe that job creation lies within the bill not supported by the other party; all in an attempt to gain control of the White House.
As much as I dislike the blame game, this crisis will always lie with George W. Bush. The lack of domestic oversight (big government)/ regulations has caused a meltdown of epic proportion. So much so that it took the TARP (band aid) and an $800 billion stimulus (tourniquet) that merely halted the crisis, but did nothing to make it better. Here is to that continued job search until 2016...
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